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Within the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.