Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
