‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the authorities maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being prioritized to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being prioritised for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been sparked by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through diversification. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.